In November 2025, China's total monthly lithium carbonate production continued to climb, up 3% MoM and surging 49% YoY. Supported by robust NEV sales, strong seasonal performance in the passenger vehicle market, and thriving supply and demand in the ESS sector, lithium chemical plants maintained high production enthusiasm.
By raw material, all segments saw some growth.
Spodumene-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November increased 1% MoM. Leading lithium chemical plants continued to operate at high utilization rates, while non-integrated enterprises also maintained high output levels amid a demand boost. Combined with incremental contributions from the smooth ramp-up of several new production lines, spodumene-derived lithium carbonate output remained elevated, accounting for a stable 60% of total production.
Lepidolite-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November rose 6% MoM, primarily driven by downstream demand and prices remaining within a favorable range, leading to a notable increase in toll processing orders and boosting overall output.
Salt lake-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November grew 5% MoM, mainly due to the smooth ramp-up of new production lines. However, output at some enterprises pulled back to some extent due to seasonal temperature drops.
Scrap-derived lithium carbonate: Total production in November surged 13% MoM, largely because of sustained market optimism and rising prices for lithium carbonate, which heightened production enthusiasm among recycling enterprises. Despite the rapid growth, the overall output scale of the scrap-derived segment remains limited.
The production forecast for December is based on the most optimistic scenario involving the resumption of production at a leading mine in Jiangxi. Its supporting lithium chemical plant will require a certain capacity ramp-up period, which is expected to contribute limited incremental output. Meanwhile, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and continued demand-driven production support, China's lithium carbonate output in December is projected to maintain growth, with an estimated MoM increase of around 3%.
Demand side, NEV sales in December are expected to drop back slightly from the previous month, while the ESS market continues to experience robust supply and demand, with supply remaining relatively tight. Battery cell and cathode material production schedules are anticipated to stay high in December, though with a slight MoM decline. Overall, against a backdrop of steady supply growth and relatively stable demand, lithium carbonate destocking is expected to continue in December, but at a slower pace compared to November.
